The world is bracing for a powerful El Niño event, one that could be the strongest in over 70 years, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This natural weather phenomenon, which develops in the Pacific Ocean, is set to last until at least February 2027, bringing with it a host of extreme weather conditions. As the impacts of El Niño start to be felt globally, the UN head António Guterres has warned that we have entered a "danger zone of extreme weather".
El Niño changes weather patterns worldwide, pushing some regions into drought while others experience stronger typhoons and flooding. Forecasters also predict that El Niño will boost temperatures in some areas, adding to the rising heat globally from human-induced climate change. This combination of factors is causing serious concerns, especially for vulnerable groups.
The WMO has undertaken a "major mobilisation" to circulate its forecasts of potential extreme weather events linked to El Niño to as many communities as possible. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warns that El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.
In Australia, marine heatwaves driven by climate change have already caused significant damage. The Great Barrier Reef has been spared the worst of the conditions this year, giving coral more time to recover. However, Southern Australia is facing severe impacts, including starving penguins, fish kills, suffocating algae outbreaks, and jellyfish invasions. Australia has introduced early warning systems for marine crises, but the unprecedented strength of this El Niño event has Dr Alistair Hobday, chief researcher at Australia's science agency, quite worried.
In Southeast Asia, Central America, and northern parts of South America, drier-than-usual conditions are forecast, increasing the risk of droughts and wildfires. Indonesia is already battling wildfires that have burned more than 107,000 hectares of land nationwide this dry season. The authorities are deploying cloud-seeding aircraft to trigger rains to extinguish these fires, and the government has promised resources to contain the fire and arrested dozens over allegations of using it to clear land.
China is also bracing for the impacts of El Niño, with experts predicting seven typhoons to make landfall this year alone. In July, three typhoons - Bavi, Noul, and Maysak - left dozens dead, and in August, Typhoon Dolphin forced over 1 million people to evacuate their homes. Similarly, wetter-than-average weather is expected in parts of eastern Africa, southern Brazil, and the southern US, raising the chances of flooding.
Peru is particularly vulnerable to El Niño, as its coastline borders the eastern Pacific. Parts of the country, along with Ecuador and parts of Brazil, have previously experienced increased rainfall, resulting in flash flooding and landslides, particularly in urban centres where the water is less able to drain away. Practical Action, an organisation that helps countries prepare for extreme weather, has been working to improve public access to early warning systems, including sharing information on river levels, flood risks, and weather forecasts.
The US has announced it is deploying the vessel USNS Comfort to the Peruvian coast to provide additional medical assistance and technical equipment for when El Niño reaches its peak. However, Practical Action's climate resilience lead, Miguel Aréstegui, emphasises that El Niño "does not arrive in a vacuum". He highlights the need to address structural issues such as housing in exposed areas, fragile water and sanitation systems, and a weak healthcare system to mitigate the impacts of these extreme weather events.
In conclusion, the impending El Niño event is a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of our planet's climate systems. As we face the challenges of extreme weather, it is crucial to address the underlying structural issues that exacerbate these events. By doing so, we can build resilience and better prepare for the future, ensuring that vulnerable communities are not left behind in the face of this global crisis.
